Fixed MH3 Draft print runs are broken

[Scagnetti]

I recorded a draft where I saw twisted landscape in 20/24 packs, which is just statistically impossible to happen. Simon nielsen also had a draft where he took like 18 copies of oozewag, which is also a statistically impossible thing, and both happening at the same time is near-irrefutable proof that something is wrong.

I've had the odd feeling that something was off, and it felt like I was "seeing the same pack over and over again." You're hoping for a fixing land, and every fixing land you see is the same wrong one, or you get lucky and spike like four of the exact one you need in a row. You feel like you saw oozewag, or hexgold slith, or the blue removal enchantment, or the 7-cost eldrazi that cycles for green over and over again. You draft five copies of a premium uncommon (something I'm not sure has happened to me in paper magic ever, but happens on mtgo mh3 like once every 10 drafts), or seven copies of a common. Things just seem weird, and something has to be wrong.

The packs are not independent. This might be that just one slot is bugged, or it could be much worse and have a correlation between the contents of the entire pack with either some or all other packs in the draft. This would explain why signals feel so off this set, because it will seem like "green is open" to literally everyone, which makes everyone take green cards, which leaves everyone confused as to why they got late green cards then never saw green again.

If this is true, it rewards drafting raw power and avoiding synergy, because picking up synergistic cards would be less likely, and draft signals in general couldn't be trusted. I don't know exactly what is wrong, but something is definitely very wrong.

Simon Nielsen post: https://x.com/MrChecklistcard/status/1801361061657854329

He speculates that it's only oozewag, and only in leagues, but my draft was an elimination draft, and was twisted landscapes, so that's not true.

20/24 twisted landscapes: Event ID 12650927, Game ID 881601048

Video of draft:

Spreadsheet of landscapes: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachme...d28484bc41e85c4a952f6307a5ebd50c7eef7d5548b1&

 

[Scagnetti]

Edit: Lots of people are saying they opened 6+ copies of a single common in their sealed pools; this should be an easy way to check. Do a lookup for every mh3 sealed pool and return how many copies there were of the most frequent common. Seeing 4+ copies of a single common hardly happens, seeing 6+ doesn't happen; the distributions should make this somewhat clear. Or you could do the same lookup for draft boosters, checking the number of copies of the most represented common. 20+ should happen less than once in the entirety of mtgo for all draft sets ever, much less just mh3 in the last week. If this has happened even 10 times it is irrefutable proof that something is wrong.

 

[Scagnetti]

It's probably not obvious how insane this is, so let's look at the math really quick.
Play boosters make things complicated, but there will be roughly 6-8 commons per pack, and 90 commons total in MH3. For simplicity's sake, let's say there is a 10% chance to see any particular common in any particular booster (This is a very liberal estimate, the real number is more like 7.8%~).

This means that for the above scenario to happen, you would need to hit a 10% chance 20 out of 24 times. That probably sounds insane on its face, but it likely much more insane than you imagine- the probability is 7.1215255 * E-17, for non-math people this is inconceivably unlikely, if the code was not bugged this would be by many orders of magnitude the least likely thing to ever happen in magic. Orders of magnitude worse than the dream cheating scandal, which was 1 in trillions, approximately 7 x E-13. And remember, this is using favorable odds to what the odds should actually be... using what I think are more accurate odds are 5.4226057806879 * E-19.

This is NOT POSSIBLE without bugged code, it can not happen.