Accessibility vs. Collectability: Curated Cards in Treasure Chests

[water_wizard]

Going to be a long post, although hoping to make MTGO better for everyone.

First, if you are going to downvote this post, please courteously leave a reply as to why.

I made a similar post a few months ago, and I was told changes would be happening, although nothing has changed.

Is it possible to have some insight and/or feedback into how Treasure Chests are updated? Who is making these decisions and why?

A little history, leagues used to pay out in the current Standard set packs, which would drop these prices dramatically (and affect the league EV accordingly), although there were both non-foil and foil redemptions, so this would buoy the price of the packs.

Treasure Chests started and were initially well-received. They made sense, especially in non-Standard format leagues. Originally, and for many years, Treasure Chests were a mix of non-foil Modern-era rares and mythics. However, these cards were overpopulated in MTGO, and a curated list was created in order to bolster Chest prices and make cards more accessible to players. Chests never contained foil cards, which is why players who wished to collect on MTGO collected foil cards, because they were limited in their distribution.

A few years ago, Chests started containing foil cards in the Curated Slots. This has had mixed reviews amongst players, as the vast majority of players prefer non-foil cards and the buy:sell margin is worse on foil cards.

With Pre-Modern being popular, there have been more older cards released in the Curated Slot to compensate for Pre-Modern demand.

Recently, a number of these Pre-Modern Curated Card Slots have been for foils. This is frustrating to players who collected foils (and usually paid a premium for them), players who wish to play these cards (as most prefer non-foils), bots who buy these cards (some bots won't even buy foil cards anymore), and players who open Chests, because foils have a lower buy price than their non-foil equivalent.

The Treasure Chest Information Page always contains a date and time for the next update. This date and time is never followed, almost always occurring the day before it is listed, and sometimes as many and three or four days before. These irregular updates creates a bit of chaos for players, collectors, buyers, and bots, as there is usually a rush to sell off cards listed in the Curated List, as their price usually drops due to increased supply. Some people pay for website tracking software to notify them of when the Treasure Chest Information Page updates, so that they can quickly act.

A number of the recent cards in the Curated Slot have made no sense to me and the practical effect of having these cards in that slot have been pointless.

For example, the last update (prior to today), both Foil ONS Flooded Strand and ONS Polluted Delta were included. Prior to the update, these cards were both about 20 tickets and had limited or no availability, as they had not been made available for many years. However, both had had numerous printings in other sets, including Khans of Tarkir and Modern Horizons 3, so both cards were readily accessible for players on the secondary market. Within minutes of the updates, both cards had their prices slashed by bots to 6 tickets. All the update did was eliminate scarcity and kill collector value for a card that already was readily available in many different versions for players.

One thought is that someone at Daybreak is attempting to keep Treasure Chest EV high, so they are picking older foil cards because their buy prices are higher (they are higher because of scarcity, which listing in the Curated List eliminates). However, the reality is that buy prices are slashed before the first Chests are ever opened.

For example, looking at the update today:
Eladamri's Vineyard - was buying at 20, is now buying at 5.61, despite no trade ins and no Chests being opened
Force of Negation - 16->8 despite no trade ins. This card was only available in Premium Booster Packs - why would I spend $6.99 on a premium booster pack if the same card will be later released in Chests? Why not release the regular Modern Horizons Force of Negation, which already has a drop rate in the Modern Rare/Mythic slot?
Gemstone Mine 14->8 (no trade ins)
Oath of Druids 25->16 (no trade ins)
Powder Keg 17->7 (no trade ins)
Sphere of Resistance 20->5 (no trade ins)

When cards that the bots have no inventory of are added to the Chests, the bots drastically drop their buy prices before the cards are ever available. And why wouldn't they? They have no inventory to buoy their price point and why would they want to buy those cards for more than they need to?

If you use the non-foil versions, the bots have some inventory, so they are going to think twice about drastically cutting their prices, because they have some skin in the game.

Oath of Druids Foil EX should have been non-foil Vintage Masters (this would have provided a higher buy price and better EV for the Chests)
Sphere of Resistance should have been the non-foil Vintage Masters as well.

The only times foils should be included in Chests is when it is a new card that has not been previously released.

Currently, when foil cards in are included in the Chests, especially foil cards of which bots have no inventory, the prices drop by up to 75% before a Chest is even opened. This means worse EV for the Chests, players getting foil cards which they do not want to play with, and a non-optimal situation for MTGO.

Including cards that were only available in Premium Boosters, especially when better alternatives exist, is foolish, because why would players purchase Premium Boosters when the same card may become available in Chests at a discounted rate.

I would like to see constructed play staples, especially the expensive cards, included in Chests. This is good for Chest EV (which is good for MTGO) and increases players' abilities to play their deck-of-choice, which is also good for MTGO. However, including the original art foils offers lower EV as well as destroying the collectability of MTGO.

Again, if you agree or disagree with my lengthy post, please comment a reply to continue this discussion.

Thank you!

 

[starslights]

I think foil versions of cards are a good way to lower the barrier to entry.
The price of the normal versions sometimes doesn’t go down, which probably isn’t great news for people who want to start playing in tournaments.
However, I do agree with the idea that cards that already have a cheaper version don’t need to be reprinted in TCs.

 

[Bryan]

I agree with everything you said.

 

[water_wizard]

I think foil versions of cards are a good way to lower the barrier to entry.
The price of the normal versions sometimes doesn’t go down, which probably isn’t great news for people who want to start playing in tournaments.
However, I do agree with the idea that cards that already have a cheaper version don’t need to be reprinted in TCs.

Are there specific cards where the foil versions are lower than the non-foil? I usually find it's the opposite and foils have a worse buy:sell margin, so TC EV decreases. I also find most players prefer non-foils, so including foils in the TC seems to offer less EV than their non-foil equivalents.

I appreciate that you agree that the cards with cheaper versions do not need to be reprinted - I think this is an attempt to increase TC EV, which fails (look at Fatal Push in this print run - went from 33 to 4, which lowers TC EV and sucks for players who bought that card at a higher rate - also makes MTGO players think twice about buying Premium or exclusive cards because they might just be later included in TC, destroying exclusivity).

Thank you for your constructive comment!

 

[starslights]

If a foil version is reprinted in a TC, the card's value may drop significantly. This is advantageous for those who want to participate in tournaments, as it allows them to keep their initial investment low.
Since the value of the normal version tends not to drop, it often remains too expensive to purchase even when it is reprinted in a TC.
If you plan to sell the card eventually, the standard version is the better choice, but if you don’t plan to sell it, it’s nice to have a more affordable option.
However, including high-value collector's cards like “Fatal Push” in a TC is definitely not a good idea.
Although there is a “cheaper” version of “Fatal Push,” this reprint won’t be of any help to people who just want to compete in tournaments.

 

[water_wizard]

If a foil version is reprinted in a TC, the card's value may drop significantly. This is advantageous for those who want to participate in tournaments, as it allows them to keep their initial investment low.
Since the value of the normal version tends not to drop, it often remains too expensive to purchase even when it is reprinted in a TC.
If you plan to sell the card eventually, the standard version is the better choice, but if you don’t plan to sell it, it’s nice to have a more affordable option.
However, including high-value collector's cards like “Fatal Push” in a TC is definitely not a good idea.
Although there is a “cheaper” version of “Fatal Push,” this reprint won’t be of any help to people who just want to compete in tournaments.

Okay, makes sense. Thank you for explaining! I always assumed that the foil TC cards dropped so much because most players did not prefer them. Like Eladamri's Vineyard - the non-foil version hasn't dropped at all and the foil version dropped 80%. Oath of Druids non-foil had a slight drop. Same with Sphere of Resistance and Powder Keg.

The only issue with the foil versions dropping so fast is that it is bad for TC EV. When TC EV is 2.4+ (ideally 2.6+), a lot more packs get opened and sold, which is good for the MTGO economy (it also makes a lot more sense to play events.)